After 10 years in power, Putin bears no signs of weakening authority

Vladimir Putin's holiday pictures from Tyva show a leader who, after 10 years in power, bears no signs of weakening authority, and is capable of withstanding another decade at helm of the country.

SHOWS:

TYVA, RUSSIA (AUGUST 3, 2009) (RTR - NO ACCESS RUSSIA)

1. RUSSIA'S PRIME MINISTER VLADIMIR PUTIN SWIMMING BUTTERFLY STROKE IN RIVER

2. PUTIN AND LOCAL BOY RIDING HORSES

3. PUTIN CATCHING FISH IN RIVER

4. VARIOUS OF PUTIN DRIVING BOAT ON RIVER

5. RIVER

6. PUTIN PRESENTING TYVA BOY WITH WATCH

MOSCOW, RUSSIA (FILE- AUGUST 1999 ) (RTR - NO ACCESS RUSSIA)

7. LATE RUSSIA'S PRESIDENT BORIS YELTSIN SHAKING HANDS WITH PUTIN BEFORE APPOINTING HIM AS PRIME MINISTER

MOSCOW, RUSSIA (FILE- AUGUST 16, 1999 ) (RTR - NO ACCESS RUSSIA)

8. DUMA (PARLIAMENT) SESSION IN PROGRESS

9. PUTIN LOOKING AT SCREEN AS DUMA VOTES FOR APPOINTING HIM AS PRIME MINISTER

10. SCREEN SHOWING VOTE RESULTS

11. SESSION IN PROGRESS

MOSCOW, RUSSIA (FILE- MAY 7, 2000) (RTR - NO ACCESS RUSSIA)

12. VARIOUS OF PUTIN WALKING THROUGH KREMLIN HALLS DURING HIS INAUGURATION

13. CONSTITUTION OF RUSSIAN FEDERATION ON PODIUM

14. PUTIN GIVING OATH

15. PUTIN'S HAND ON CONSTITUTION DURING GIVING OATH

MOSCOW, RUSSIA (RECENT- AUGUST 2009) (REUTERS - ACCESS ALL)

16. (SOUNDBITE) (Russian) MARIA LIPMAN, ANALYST AND EDITOR OF THE PRO ET CONTRA JOURNAL AT THE MOSCOW CARNEGIE CENTRE THINK-TANK, SAYING:

"By the end of the whole year of economic crises which seriously affected Russia, Putin's popularity in fact has not been changed. And it is still on the level which may cause jealousy even of a leader who has not experienced the crises in the country and where the circumstances develop more favourably. We are talking about popularity which is higher than 70 percent, practically reaching 80 percent."

OMSK, RUSSIA (FILE - DECEMBER 2008) (REUTERS - ACCESS ALL)

17. VARIOUS OF TATTOO ARTIST NADEZHDA KURAYEVA MAKING A BIO - TATTOO OF RUSSIAN PRIME MINISTER VLADIMIR PUTIN ON THE CLIENT'S SHOULDER

18. VARIOUS OF TATTOO ARTIST TATIANA ZHAROVA MAKING A BIO - TATTOO OF PUTIN ON THE CLIENT'S ARM

19. BIO - TATTOO CLIENT MOVING SHOULDER WITH PUTIN'S TATTOO TO MAKE IT CHANGE EXPRESSION AND SHOW EMOTION

20. TATTOO STUDIO CLIENTS POSING IN FRONT OF MIRROR

MOSCOW, RUSSIA (RECENT - AUGUST 2009) (REUTERS - ACCESS ALL)

21. (SOUNDBITE) (Russian) MARIA LIPMAN, ANALYST AND EDITOR OF THE PRO ET CONTRA JOURNAL AT THE MOSCOW CARNEGIE CENTRE THINK-TANK, SAYING:

"I think one of the most important drawbacks of his (Putin's) political leadership is that he has wasted the years of incredible economic opportunities for Russia, the years when the oil prices were very high. Those years were wasted from the point of view of the country's modernization."

MOSCOW, RUSSIA (FILE - JANUARY 2009) (RTR - NO ACCESS RUSSIA)

22. VARIOUS OF GAZPROM OFFICIALS SHOWING PUTIN ELECTRONIC DISPLAY OF GAS PIPELINE ROUTS

23. MEDIA SURROUNDING OFFICIALS

TOGLIATTI, RUSSIA (RECENT - AUGUST 6, 2009) (REN TV - NO ACCESS RUSSIA)

24. AVTOVAZ WORKERS GATHERED FOR PROTEST

25. PROTESTERS HOLDING BANNER READING "MORE POWER TO WORKERS"

26. PROTESTER HOLDING PLACARD READING: "TOGETHER WE CAN GET RID OFF THE CRISES IN HALF A YEAR! LET 'S DO IT VLADIMIR (PUTIN)"

YEKATERINBURG, RUSSIA (FILE - FEBRUARY 2008) (REUTERS - ACCESS ALL)

27. SHOP ASSISTANT SHOWING RUSSIAN PRESIDENT DMITRY MEDVEDEV'S PORTRAIT TO CUSTOMER

28. MEDVEDEV'S PORTRAIT

29. VARIOUS OF PUTIN AND MEDVEDEV PORTRAITS ON SHELF

MOSCOW, RUSSIA (RECENT- AUGUST 2009) (REUTERS - ACCESS ALL)

30. (SOUNDBITE) (Russian) MARIA LIPMAN, ANALYST AND EDITOR OF THE PRO ET CONTRA JOURNAL AT THE MOSCOW CARNEGIE CENTRE THINK-TANK, SAYING:

"Russian citizens who view this tandem probably more positively than political analysts, consider that Putin is a leader in this tandem and think that Medvedev conducts the policy which is determined by Putin."

MOSCOW, RUSSIA (FILE - MARCH 2, 2008) (RUSSIAN POOL - ACCESS ALL)

31. VARIOUS OF THE THEN RUSSIAN PRESIDENT VLADIMIR PUTIN AND HIS THE THEN SUCCESSOR DMITRY MEDVEDEV WALKING TOGETHER IN SNOW ON RED SQUARE TO WELCOME RESULTS OF PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS

32. CROWD CHEERING IN FRONT OF STAGE

33. PUTIN CONGRATULATING NEXT LEADER AND PRESIDENT DMITRY MEDVEDEV WITH ELECTION RESULTS

34. VARIOUS OF CROWD CHANTING: "PUTIN, PUTIN" AS MEDVEDEV AND PUTIN SHAKE HANDS AND LEAVE STAGE

MOSCOW, RUSSIA (RECENT- AUGUST 2009) (REUTERS - ACCESS ALL)

35. (SOUNDBITE) (Russian) MARIA LIPMAN, ANALYST AND EDITOR OF THE PRO ET CONTRA JOURNAL AT THE MOSCOW CARNEGIE CENTRE THINK-TANK, SAYING:

"Political decisions in regard to the configuration of the power, meaning -- who will be the leader, what kind of elections will be carried out, who will win them -- are still in Putin's hands. There is nobody who can openly challenge him. Political situation in the country is such, and it has been created by the efforts of Kremlin, by Putin himself and his aids as well, that Putin has no alternative. So theoretically speaking everything depends on him."

MOSCOW, RUSSIA (RECENT- AUGUST 2009) (REUTERS - ACCESS ALL)

36. VARIOUS OF KREMLIN

STORY: Prime Minister Vladimir Putin marks 10 years in power this weekend, his high domestic popularity and commanding authority over Russia virtually intact despite a serious economic crisis.

With no credible opposition on the horizon and a long-term plan published for Russia's development to 2020 and beyond, many say Putin could stay at the helm for another decade unless unforeseen external factors intervene.

A youthful-looking 56, Putin burnished his macho public image this week with photographs of his recent holiday in Tyva. The videos show Putin riding a horse bare-chested, swimming butterfly stroke in a river and catching fish in Siberia -- hardly the look of a man eyeing retirement.

Putin has enjoyed an economic tail wind for most of his time in power, as prime minister from August 1999, president from 2000 to 2008, then prime minister again. This came in the form of high prices for Russia's main exports of gas, oil and metals.

But political analysts and diplomats also credit him with restoring order to what was a shattered land in danger of collapse when he was nominated on August 9, 1999 as ailing President Boris Yeltsin's fourth prime minister in 17 months.

Order came at what Western ambassadors say was a high price in terms of eroded democracy, weakened human rights and limited media freedom -- but polls consistently show those things at the bottom of most Russians' priority lists.

Even though the global economic crisis has now slashed prices for raw materials and halted foreign lending to Russian companies, triggering the country's worst recession since Putin came to power, pollsters say Putin's ratings have barely moved.

"By the end of the whole year of economic crises which seriously affected Russia, Putin's popularity in fact has not been changed. And it is still on the level which may cause jealousy even of a leader who has not experienced the crises in the country and where the circumstances develop more favourably. We are talking about popularity which is higher than 70 percent, practically reaching 80 percent," analyst and editor of the Pro Et Contra journal at the Moscow Carnegie centre think-tank, Maria Lipman, told Reuters.

Kremlin expert, Olga Kryshtanovskaya, mostly working on the Kremlin elite, commented that for Russians there seems to be different criteria for evaluating politicians. While Westerners might expect their leaders to be effective, the most important thing for Russians is strength.

Pictures from Putin's rugged Tyva holidays, with the Russian President manning a fast-moving river boat, clearly display a strong leader.

The independent Levada Centre says the premier still enjoys a 78 percent approval rating, only 10 points down on the maximum he reached just after Russia's war with Georgia last year.

This is despite unemployment rising more than 50 percent to 6.5 million in May and the economy contracting by nearly 10 percent in the first quarter of this year.

"I think one of the most important drawbacks of his (Putin's) political leadership is that he has wasted the years of incredible economic opportunities for Russia, the years when the oil prices were very high. Those years were wasted from the point of view of the country's modernization," Maria Lipman said.

According to Levada Center director, Lev Gudkov, even the financial crisis, while affecting trust in Putin, has not changed it fundamentally. He also said that, even if the economic situation should worsen, Putin holds a reserve of patience and trust among the Russian people which will last probably another year and a half. The crisis's slow rate of development has given people time to adapt.

"Russian citizens who view this tandem probably more positively than political analysts, consider that Putin is a leader in this tandem and think that (President Dmitry) Medvedev conducts the policy which is determined by Putin," Maria Lipman said.

Another 18 months of high public support would take Putin, the country's most successful politician since the collapse of the Soviet Union, close to the next election for Russian president, due to be held in early 2012.

Constitutional changes pushed through last year -- some say at Putin's behest -- will extend the next president's term by two years more than the period being served by his protege, long-time ally and hand-picked successor, Dmitry Medvedev.

Putin chose Medvedev to succeed him because term limits prevented him continuing for a third consecutive term. However he is free to return to the Kremlin at any time in the future.

"Political decisions in regard to the configuration of the power, meaning -- who will be the leader, what kind of elections will be carried out, who will win them -- are still in Putin's hands. There is nobody who can openly challenge him. Political situation in the country is such, and it has been created by the efforts of Kremlin, by Putin himself and his aids as well, that Putin has no alternative. So theoretically speaking everything depends on him," Carnegie centre think-tank analyst said.

At some point before the election Putin must decide whether to return to his old job as president, dispensing with Medvedev as a one-term temporary stand-in, or whether to bow out.

Nobody expects their unusual power-sharing arrangement -- heavily dominated by Putin -- to last beyond the next election.